Retention Phase Intervention Selector

Example 1: Mobile app with initial phase broken

Situation: A fitness tracking app shows that 65% of new users are active on Day 1, but only 22% return on Day 7, and only 14% return on Day 14. The curve never plateaus.

Product type: Mobile app. Initial phase = Day 1. Medium phase = Days 2–14. Long-term = Week 3+.

Diagnosis: Initial phase failure. 78% churn within the first week indicates users are not reaching a meaningful experience of core value before disengaging. The curve's failure to plateau confirms there is no retained user segment.

Churn masking check: Total downloads growing 20% month-over-month, which was masking the cohort-level pattern in dashboard reviews.

Interventions prescribed:

Not prescribed: Habit formation experiments, new feature development, or win-back campaigns — all medium- and long-term phase tactics.

Example 2: SaaS product with medium phase broken

Situation: A project management SaaS shows 60% of Month 1 users still active in Month 2, but only 28% in Month 4 and 18% in Month 6. The initial drop is acceptable for a SaaS product; the Month 2–4 drop is steep.

Product type: SaaS. Initial phase = Month 1. Medium phase = Months 2–5. Long-term = Month 6+.

Diagnosis: Medium phase failure. Users are successfully onboarded (strong Month 1 retention) but are not forming a habit of returning. The tool is not yet their default project management environment.

Churn masking check: Not detected — new sales are flat, so the cohort-level pattern is visible in aggregate.

Interventions prescribed:

Not prescribed: NUX redesign (initial phase is healthy), feature bloat audit (feature velocity is not the issue at Month 2–4).