Traction Channel Testing

Scenario: B2B SaaS founder wants to test SEM

Trigger: "I want to run Google Ads to test SEM as a channel. We sell a $99/month project management tool. Budget: $500 for the test. Goal: 200 paying customers in 90 days."

Process: (1) Tracking check — founder has a CRM with source attribution, good. (2) Needle calc: 200 customers / 3% assumed conversion = 6,667 clicks needed. At $2/click = $13,334 budget at full scale. $500 test can produce ~250 clicks = maybe 5-8 customers. That's enough signal. (3) 4-question test designed: 4 ads, 1 landing page, 5 keyword groups, 2 weeks duration. (4) Run: $487 spent, 243 clicks, 9 signups, 4 paying. CAC = $122 vs $99 price × 12-month average retention = $1,188 LTV. Healthy ratio. (5) Decision: Optimize. Weekly A/B tests on ad copy and landing page headline. Scale budget to $3k/month.

Output: Clear validation → optimization decision with CAC vs LTV math.

Scenario: Consumer app considering Targeting Blogs

Trigger: "We want to try sponsored posts on fitness blogs. We have $800 to test. Our mobile fitness app needs to hit 10,000 new users this quarter."

Process: (1) Tracking — in-app attribution via source-tagged download links, OK. (2) Needle calc: 10,000 users / 2% conversion = 500k reach needed. Top 3 fitness blogs reach ~800k/month combined. Math works. (3) Test: 2 sponsored posts on 2 mid-tier blogs, $400 each, 1 week duration. Measure click-throughs and downloads. (4) Run: Blog A = 1,240 clicks → 31 downloads (CAC $13). Blog B = 340 clicks → 6 downloads (CAC $67). (5) Decision: Blog A clearly works, Blog B doesn't. Optimize on Blog A (sponsor monthly), explore similar fitness blogs.

Output: Clear winner, clear loser, next-stage plan.

Scenario: Detecting a saturating channel

Trigger: "Our Facebook ads have been great for 18 months. CAC was $15. Now it's $28 and climbing. Should we panic?"

Process: (1) This is the Law of Shitty Click-Throughs in action. Don't panic but don't ignore it. (2) Re-run the 4 questions: CAC up ($28), volume flat, quality similar, time-to-acquire same. (3) Check LTV — is $28 still profitable? If LTV is $300, $28 is fine but trajectory matters. (4) Decision: Run 2-3 small tests on adjacent channels NOW while Facebook still works. Don't wait until Facebook is unprofitable. (5) Parallel experiments: $250 on TikTok ads, $250 on YouTube preroll, $250 on 1 niche influencer. See which has signal.

Output: Recognition of saturation, parallel discovery of next channel before the primary fails.