macro-regime-detector

Macro Regime Detector

Identify the current US macroeconomic regime by synthesizing real-time treasury yields, GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and commodity price signals from the Finskills API. Output a regime classification with an evidence-based rationale and asset allocation implications.

Setup

API Key required — Register at https://finskills.net to get your free key. Header: X-API-Key: > Get your API key: Register at https://finskills.net — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials.

When to Activate This Skill

Activate when the user:

Macro Regime Framework

This skill classifies the US economy into one of six regimes:

| Regime | GDP Growth | Inflation | Rate Direction | Risk Assets | |--------|-----------|-----------|---------------|-------------| | Goldilocks | Expanding | Moderate (2–3%) | Stable/Falling | Risk-On ✅ | | Reflation | Expanding | Rising (3–5%) | Rising | Cyclicals ✅ | | Overheating | Strong | High (>5%) | Rising fast | Commodities ✅ | | Stagflation | Slowing | High (>4%) | Elevated | Hard Assets ✅ | | Slowdown | Decelerating | Falling | Stable | Defensives ✅ | | Recession | Contracting | Low/Deflating | Falling | Cash/Bonds ✅ |

Data Retrieval — Finskills API Calls

Make the following calls (all free-tier endpoints):

1. US Treasury Rates (Yield Curve)

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/treasury-rates

2. GDP Growth

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/gdp/US

3. Inflation

GET https://finskills.net/v1/macro/inflation

4. Interest Rates (Fed Policy)

GET https://finskills.net/v1/macro/interest-rates

5. Key Economic Indicators (FRED via free endpoint)

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/indicator/UNRATE

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/macro/indicator/INDPRO

6. Commodity Price Signals

GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/prices

Analysis Workflow

Step 1 — Yield Curve Classification

Using treasury rates data:

| Signal | Threshold | Interpretation | |--------|-----------|----------------| | 2y10y spread | > +50 bps | Normal — growth expected | | 2y10y spread | -25 to +50 bps | Flat — transition phase | | 2y10y spread | < -25 bps | Inverted ⚠️ — recession risk elevated | | 3m10y spread | < 0 bps | Classic recession predictor (12–18 month lead) |

Note the steepening/flattening trend direction (compare to 3 months ago if data allows).

Step 2 — Growth Assessment

| GDP Signal | Label | |-----------|-------| | > 3% annualized | Strong expansion | | 1–3% annualized | Moderate expansion | | 0–1% annualized | Stagnation | | < 0% (1 quarter) | Contraction risk | | < 0% (2 quarters) | Technical recession |

Cross-check with: Industrial Production YoY, Unemployment trend.

Step 3 — Inflation Regime

| CPI YoY | PCE YoY | Label | |---------|---------|-------| | < 2% | < 2% | Deflationary/below-target | | 2–3% | 2–2.5% | Target range (Goldilocks) | | 3–5% | 2.5–4% | Above-target, manageable | | > 5% | > 4% | High inflation |

Classify trend: Rising / Stable / Falling (compare last 3 readings).

Step 4 — Fed Policy Stance

| Rate Trend | Description | |-----------|-------------| | 3+ consecutive hikes | Tightening cycle | | Hold after hikes | Pause (peak rates) | | First cut after hikes | Pivot (easing begins) | | 3+ consecutive cuts | Easing cycle | | Hold at low rates | Accommodative |

Step 5 — Commodity Cross-Check

Step 6 — Regime Classification

Score each indicator and use this decision matrix:

IF GDP_expanding AND inflation_2-4% AND rates_stable: → GOLDILOCKS
IF GDP_expanding AND inflation_rising AND rates_rising: → REFLATION/OVERHEATING
IF GDP_slowing AND inflation_high AND rates_elevated: → STAGFLATION
IF GDP_slowing AND inflation_falling AND rates_cutting: → SLOWDOWN
IF GDP_contracting AND yield_curve_inverted: → RECESSION

Assign confidence: HIGH (3+ signals aligned), MEDIUM (2 signals), LOW (mixed signals).

Step 7 — Asset Allocation Implications

For each regime, output the relative preference for major asset classes:

| Asset Class | Goldilocks | Reflation | Stagflation | Slowdown | Recession | |-------------|-----------|-----------|-------------|----------|-----------| | US Equities | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | ❌ UW | ⚖️ N | ❌ UW | | Growth Tech | ✅ OW | ⚖️ N | ❌ UW | ⚖️ N | ❌ UW | | Energy/Materials | ⚖️ N | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | ❌ UW | ❌ UW | | Defensives | ❌ UW | ❌ UW | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | | REITs | ✅ OW | ❌ UW | ❌ UW | ⚖️ N | ❌ UW | | Long Bonds | ❌ UW | ❌ UW | ❌ UW | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | | TIPS/I-Bonds | ⚖️ N | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | ❌ UW | ❌ UW | | Gold | ❌ UW | ⚖️ N | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | | Cash | ❌ UW | ⚖️ N | ✅ OW | ✅ OW | ✅ OW |

OW = Overweight | N = Neutral | UW = Underweight

Output Format

╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║       US MACRO REGIME REPORT  —  {DATE}         ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
🏛️ REGIME CLASSIFICATION: {REGIME NAME}
   Confidence: {HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW}
   Trend: {Deepening / Stable / Transitioning}
📊 MACRO DASHBOARD
  Treasury Yields:
    3M: {%}  |  2Y: {%}  |  5Y: {%}  |  10Y: {%}  |  30Y: {%}
    2Y–10Y Spread: {bps} ({normal/flat/inverted})
    3M–10Y Spread: {bps}
  Growth:
    GDP Growth:         {%} annualized ({direction})
    Industrial Prod:    {%} YoY
    Unemployment:       {%} ({trend})
  Inflation:
    CPI YoY:            {%}
    Core CPI YoY:       {%}
    PCE YoY:            {%}
    Trend:              {Rising / Stable / Falling}
  Fed Policy:
    Fed Funds Rate:     {%}
    Policy Stance:      {Tightening / Pause / Pivoting / Easing}
    Last Decision:      {hike/cut/hold} ({date})
  Commodity Signals:
    WTI Crude:  ${price} ({weekly change}%)
    Gold:       ${price} ({weekly change}%)
    Copper:     ${price} ({weekly change}%)
    Interpretation: {one-line signal}
🎯 ASSET ALLOCATION IMPLICATIONS
   Overweight:  {asset classes}
   Neutral:     {asset classes}
   Underweight: {asset classes}
📝 REGIME NARRATIVE
   {3–4 sentences describing the current macro environment, key risks,
    and what conditions would trigger a regime shift}
⚠️ WATCH — REGIME SHIFT TRIGGERS
   Bull shift if: {conditions}
   Bear shift if: {conditions}

Limitations

API Key required — Register at https://finskills.net to get your free key. Header: X-API-Key: > Get your API key: Register at https://finskills.net — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials.