football-value-bets

Football Value Bets

Generate professional, data-driven football bet slips. No gut feelings, purely statistics and value analysis.

When to activate

Activate this skill when the user:

Prerequisites

Install dependencies (one-time):

pip install requests

Set API key (free via football-data.org/client/register):

export FOOTBALL_DATA_API_KEY="your-key-here"

Or fill in the key at {baseDir}/config/settings.json under api_key.

Mode 1: Generate Bet Slip

Step 1 -- Fetch data

Fetch current match data:

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/match_fetcher.py --mode full

This returns a JSON package with:

Coverage: Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie, Champions League.

If the user wants a specific date:

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/match_fetcher.py --mode full --date-from 2026-02-15 --date-to 2026-02-15

Step 2 -- Analyse each match

Analyse EVERY match from the data on these factors (in order of importance):

A. Form (last 5-10 matches)

B. Home/away statistics

C. Head-to-head (H2H)

D. Table position and motivation

E. Additional factors (via web search) After the data analysis, search the web for EVERY shortlisted match:

Use search terms like: "[Team A] vs [Team B] team news injuries" and "[Team A] xG stats 2025-26"

F. Odds estimation

Step 3 -- Pick selection

Select ONLY picks that meet all criteria:

1. Estimated win probability > 45% 2. Odds per pick: 1.70 - 2.50 (value range) 3. Clear motivation based on data 4. No more than 1 pick per match

Allowed pick types:

Step 4 -- Honesty check

If you find FEWER than 3 picks with real value:

Do NOT generate a bet slip. Say honestly:

"No strong bet slip possible today. The matches offer insufficient value based on the data. Reasons: [brief explanation]. Wait for better odds or the next matchday."

This is MANDATORY. Never force it. Honesty > revenue.

Step 5 -- Generate output

Generate TWO variants:

Variant A: Main slip (3-4 picks, total odds 8x-15x)

| Match | Pick | Odds | Motivation | Prob % | Risk | |-------|------|------|------------|--------|------| | Ajax - PSV | BTTS Yes | 1.85 | Both teams scored in 8/10 recent matches, H2H always goals | 52% | Low | | Arsenal - Chelsea | Over 2.5 | 1.90 | Avg 3.2 goals per match this season, both attack-minded | 48% | Medium | | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

Total odds: XX.XX Recommended stake: 5-10 EUR Potential payout: XX.XX EUR

Variant B: Backup (2-3 picks, total odds 4x-8x)

Same table format but with safer picks (higher probabilities, lower odds).

Always include at the bottom:

Step 6 -- Save bet

Automatically save the bet slip for tracking:

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/bet_tracker.py --mode save --data '{
  "type": "main",
  "stake": 5.0,
  "picks": [
    {
      "match": "Ajax - PSV",
      "competition": "Eredivisie",
      "pick": "BTTS Yes",
      "odds": 1.85,
      "estimated_probability": 0.52,
      "motivation": "Both teams scored in 8/10 recent matches",
      "risk": "low"
    }
  ],
  "total_odds": 12.50,
  "notes": ""
}'

Repeat for the backup slip with "type": "backup".

Mode 2: Record results

When the user says a bet has won or lost:

# Mark entire slip
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/bet_tracker.py --mode result --date 2026-02-15 --slip-idx 1 --result win
Mark specific pick
python3 {baseDir}/scripts/bet_tracker.py --mode result --date 2026-02-15 --slip-idx 1 --pick-idx 2 --result loss

Result options: win, loss, void

Always ask the user for the date and which slip (main or backup) it concerns.

Mode 3: View statistics

When the user asks about results, stats, ROI, or hitrate:

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/bet_tracker.py --mode stats

Present the JSON output as a readable summary:

Warn if the monthly budget is almost spent (>80% used).

Mode 4: View history

python3 {baseDir}/scripts/bet_tracker.py --mode history --days 30

Show an overview of all bets from the last N days.

Analysis quality rules

These rules are HARD. Always follow them:

1. Never more than 5 picks per slip. More picks = exponentially lower chance. 2. Never odds below 1.50 or above 3.00 per pick. Too low = no value, too high = too risky. 3. Never 2 picks from the same match. Correlation destroys value. 4. Never a pick without data backing. "Gut feeling" is not an argument. 5. Always run the honesty check. No slip is better than a bad slip. 6. Avoid derbies and cup matches unless the data is overwhelming. Too unpredictable. 7. Always check injuries. A team without key players is a different team. 8. Factor in the season phase. Early season = unreliable data. End of season = varying motivation.

Budget and responsible gambling

Configuration is in {baseDir}/config/settings.json:

If the monthly budget is at or nearly at its limit (>90%):

Tone and style

Install dependencies (one-time):

pip install requests

Set API key (free via football-data.org/client/register):

export FOOTBALL_DATA_API_KEY="your-key-here"

Or fill in the key at {baseDir}/config/settings.json under api_key.