Forecasting

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name: forecasting description: "Apply quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques. Use for demand planning, revenue projections, and trend analysis."

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Forecasting Techniques

Metadata

Name: forecasting

Description: Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods

Triggers: forecast, projection, prediction, demand planning, trend analysis

Instructions

Apply appropriate forecasting techniques for $ARGUMENTS.

Framework

Forecasting Methods

| Method | Best For | Time Horizon | Accuracy | |--------|----------|--------------|----------| | Moving Average | Stable demand | Short | Medium | | Exponential Smoothing | Trending data | Short-Medium | High | | Regression | Causal relationships | Medium-Long | High | | Scenario Planning | Uncertain environment | Long | Medium | | Delphi Method | Expert consensus | Long | Medium |

Output

## Forecast: [Subject]
Method Selection
Chosen Method: [Method name]
Rationale: [Why this method]
Historical Data
| Period | Actual | Forecast | Error |
|--------|--------|----------|-------|
| Q1 | 100 | - | - |
| Q2 | 110 | 105 | +5 |
| Q3 | 115 | 112 | +3 |
| Q4 | 120 | 118 | +2 |
Forecast Results
| Period | Forecast | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Confidence |
|--------|----------|-------------|-------------|------------|
| Q1 Next | 125 | 118 | 132 | 90% |
| Q2 Next | 130 | 120 | 140 | 85% |
| Q3 Next | 135 | 122 | 148 | 80% |
Assumptions
1. [Assumption 1]
2. [Assumption 2]
3. [Assumption 3]
Risks
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| [Risk 1] | Medium | High | [Action] |
| [Risk 2] | Low | Medium | [Action] |

Tips

Use multiple methods for validation

Document assumptions clearly

Update forecasts with new data

Consider seasonality

Use multiple methods for validation

Document assumptions clearly

Update forecasts with new data

Consider seasonality