Kalshi Eth Merge Momentum Trader
by @diagnostikon
Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the post-merge deflation thesis. ETH burns ~0.5% of supply annually via EIP-1559, creating structural upward pressur...
clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-traderπ About This Skill
name: kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader description: Trades ETH price markets on Kalshi using the post-merge deflation thesis. ETH burns ~0.5% of supply annually via EIP-1559, creating structural upward pressure. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live"
Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader
> This is a template. > The default signal uses a static 0.5% annual burn rate -- remix it with live ultrasound.money data, dynamic burn rate tracking, or EIP-1559 base fee analysis. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Post-merge Ethereum burns approximately 0.5% of its total supply annually through the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. When gas usage exceeds issuance to validators, ETH becomes net deflationary. This skill computes a deflation-adjusted fair value and trades when markets underprice this structural supply reduction.
Key advantages:
Signal Logic
Deflation Model
1. Compute deflation-adjusted price: adj = base * (1 + net_deflation * days/365 * 0.5)
2. Convert price target to fair probability using logistic model
3. Compare fair probability to market price
4. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge
Remix Ideas
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade | | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this | | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market | | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting | | Annual burn rate | 0.5% | ETH supply burn rate assumption | | Base ETH price | $3500 | Current ETH price baseline |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|----------|------|----------------|
| python trader.py | Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|----------|----------|-------|
| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|----------|---------|---------|
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence to trigger trade |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (15%) |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BURN_PCT | 0.5 | Annual ETH supply burn rate (%) |
| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BASE_PRICE | 3500 | Current ETH price baseline ($) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.