Kalshi F1 Teammate Anti Trader

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name: kalshi-f1-teammate-anti-trader description: Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi using teammate anti-correlation. Teammates share the same car so their probabilities are structurally linked -- when one rises, the other should fall. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Kalshi F1 Teammate Anti-Correlation Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live"

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Kalshi F1 Teammate Anti-Correlation Trader

> This is a template. > The default signal uses static dominance ratios -- remix it with live head-to-head qualifying/race data for dynamic dominance estimation. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

F1 teammates share the same car, meaning their championship probabilities are structurally anti-correlated. If Verstappen's probability rises, Lawson's should fall (they share Red Bull's probability budget). Markets are slow to adjust both sides of teammate pairs simultaneously, creating exploitable relative mispricings.

Key advantages:

Structural constraint -- teammate probabilities must sum to roughly the team's total share

Dominance ratios are stable -- intra-team hierarchy rarely changes mid-season

Markets adjust asymmetrically -- one driver's price moves but teammate's lags

Pairs trading -- natural hedge structure reduces directional risk

Signal Logic

Teammate Anti-Correlation Model

1. Define teammate pairs (same constructor) 2. Set dominance ratios (who captures what % of team total) 3. For each pair, sum their market prices = team_total 4. Compute fair split: fair_A = team_total * dominance, fair_B = team_total * (1-dominance) 5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge for either driver

Teammate Pairs (2025)

| Pair | Constructor | Dominance | Team Total | |------|-------------|-----------|------------| | Verstappen / Lawson | Red Bull | 85%/15% | ~36% | | Leclerc / Hamilton | Ferrari | 50%/50% | ~20% | | Russell / Antonelli | Mercedes | 70%/30% | ~8% | | Piastri / Norris | McLaren | 40%/60% | ~36% |

Conviction-Based Sizing

conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0

size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)

Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Entry edge | 8% | Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade | | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this | | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market | | Max trades per run | 4 | Rate limiting | | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds | | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-f1-teammate-anti-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | python trader.py | Dry run | None | | Cron / automaton | Dry run | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | | SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | SIMMER_F1_TEAM_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.08 | Min divergence to trigger trade | | SIMMER_F1_TEAM_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level | | SIMMER_F1_TEAM_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade | | SIMMER_F1_TEAM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 4 | Max trades per execution cycle | | SIMMER_F1_TEAM_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping trade | | SIMMER_F1_TEAM_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/

GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Publisher: hello@simmer.markets