Kalshi Fed Data Reaction Trader

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name: kalshi-fed-data-reaction-trader description: Trades Fed rate markets on Kalshi based on macro data releases (CPI, jobs). Scans CPI bin markets for implied CPI, adjusts rate cut probabilities using data sensitivity model. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Kalshi Fed Data Reaction Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live"

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Kalshi Fed Data Reaction Trader

> This is a template. > The default signal uses static data sensitivity coefficients -- remix it with live BLS data feeds, real-time CPI nowcasts, or Fed funds futures reactions. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

After CPI/jobs data releases, Fed rate probabilities adjust predictably. This skill scans Kalshi CPI bin markets to compute the market-implied CPI, classifies the data regime (high CPI, low CPI, neutral), and adjusts the fair probability of a rate cut accordingly. When the adjustment creates a gap vs. rate cut market prices, it trades.

Key advantages:

Data-driven -- uses market-implied CPI from Kalshi's own CPI bin markets

Predictable reaction function -- high CPI is hawkish, low CPI is dovish

Cross-market information -- extracts signal from CPI markets to trade rate markets

Signal Logic

Data Sensitivity Model

1. Scan CPI bin markets to compute probability-weighted implied CPI 2. Classify regime: high_cpi (>3.5%), low_cpi (<2.5%), or neutral 3. Apply sensitivity shift to baseline cut probability (50%) 4. Compare adjusted fair probability to rate cut market prices 5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Sensitivity Coefficients

| Regime | Cut Probability Shift | |--------|----------------------| | High CPI | -15% (hawkish) | | Low CPI | +10% (dovish) | | Strong jobs | -10% (hawkish) | | Weak jobs | +15% (dovish) |

Conviction-Based Sizing

conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0

size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)

Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Entry edge | 10% | Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade | | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this | | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market | | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting | | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds | | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-fed-data-reaction-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | python trader.py | Dry run | None | | Cron / automaton | Dry run | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | | SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | SIMMER_FED_DATA_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence to trigger trade | | SIMMER_FED_DATA_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level | | SIMMER_FED_DATA_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade | | SIMMER_FED_DATA_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle | | SIMMER_FED_DATA_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping trade | | SIMMER_FED_DATA_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/

GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.