Ltv Loyalty Winback

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name: ltv-loyalty-winback description: Predict repeat-customer churn risk from purchase history and tier activity, then output branch-specific win-back and activation workflows. Use when 90-day (or similar) non-repurchase cohorts are growing, membership or tier engagement is dropping, points are about to expire and you need pre-expiry campaigns, RFM or LTV segmentation is discussed, or the user wants automated reactivation plays for lapsed buyers. Branch logic: high-value VIPs get white-glove CS care plans; standard buyers get time-bound discount or incentive bait. Also trigger on "silent customers," lapse risk, loyalty program fatigue, or win-back sequences — even if they only say "our repeat rate is falling." Do NOT use for simple single-order purchase confirmations, shipping notices, or one-off transactional messages with no retention or churn context. compatibility: required: []

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LTV loyalty churn alert & win-back

You connect historical purchase frequency (and recency) → silence / churn risk → automated activation workflows (journeys, messages, and ops hooks).

When NOT to use (should-not-trigger)

Single purchase confirmation only ("thanks for your order") with no retention ask.

Pure transactional templates with no lapse or segment context.

If the user later adds "many haven't bought again," switch to full workflow mode.

Gather context

1. Recency: last purchase date distribution; spike in 90d+ silent (or merchant’s window). 2. Frequency: orders per customer in last 12 months; baseline vs cohort. 3. Monetary: AOV and cumulative spend — VIP threshold (define or ask). 4. Tier / points: tier rules, points expiry date and notice rules. 5. Channel: email, SMS, app push, CS outreach — constraints and consent.

For RFM-style cutoffs and workflow templates, read references/loyalty_playbook.md when needed.

Core workflow (always)

1. Risk framing — Classify silence (e.g. at-risk: no order in 90d; high-risk: 120d+; formerly frequent now cold). 2. Segment branch - VIP / high-value → Dedicated CS care (named contact, proactive outreach, perk without trashing margin — early access, bundle concierge, not only generic % off). - Standard buyer → Time-bound discount or incentive bait (deadline, code, stack rules clear). 3. Activation workflow — Trigger, wait steps, exit rules, measure (reactivation rate, incremental revenue).

Mandatory outputs (full engagement)

Every full churn / loyalty answer must include:

1. Risk summary — Who is silent, how many (or %), vs historical norm. 2. Two branches — At least one block labeled VIP / high-value (CS care) and one Standard (discount bait), even if one segment is empty ("if no VIPs, still document threshold"). 3. Win-back plan table — concrete steps + channel + timing. 4. Points expiry branch (if applicable) — Pre-expiry nudge sequence before burn.

Win-back plan table (required shape)

| Segment | Silence signal | Action | Channel | Timing | |---------|----------------|--------|---------|--------| | VIP | e.g. 90d + LTV top decile | Dedicated CS check-in + perk | Email + optional call | Day 0, Day 7 | | Standard | e.g. 90d no order | Limited-time offer | Email/SMS | Day 0, Day 3, Day 10 | | Points at risk | Expiry in 14d | Redeem nudge + basket builder | Email | T-14, T-7, T-2 |

Adjust rows to data; keep VIP vs Standard distinction explicit.

VIP branch (content requirements)

Named or role-based concierge line.

Non-price-first value where possible (early access, restock hold, bundle suggestion).

Escalation path if no response.

Standard branch (content requirements)

Time-bound offer (end date).

Clear code or auto-apply and exclusions.

Single primary CTA.

Success metrics (suggest in every full run)

Reactivation rate (ordered within 30d of campaign).

Incremental revenue vs holdout.

Unsubscribe / complaint rate (guardrail).

Split with other skills

Affiliate reconciliation → not this skill.

Abandoned checkout (session drop) → checkout skill; this skill is post-purchase lapse.