Polymarket 48h Price Curve Arb Trader
by @diagnostikon
Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels an...
clawhub install polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-traderπ About This Skill
name: polymarket-48h-price-curve-arb-trader description: Trades structural mispricings in crypto price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability distribution curve across multiple strike levels and detecting mathematical violations such as monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: 48h Price Curve Arbitrage Trader difficulty: advanced
48h Price Curve Arbitrage Trader
> This is a template. > The default signal is implied-CDF violation detection across crypto price-threshold markets β remix it with additional assets, curve-fitting models, or cross-venue price feeds. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Polymarket lists dozens of price-threshold markets for the same asset and date:
Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an implied probability distribution curve β a CDF of where the market thinks the price will be.
This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.
The Edge: Butterfly Arbitrage for Prediction Markets
In options markets, quant traders analyze the implied volatility surface across strikes to find mispriced options. This is the prediction market equivalent.
Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break
The probability of being above a lower price must always be greater than or equal to being above a higher price:
P(BTC > $68k) >= P(BTC > $70k) >= P(BTC > $74k)
If a higher strike is priced above a lower strike, the curve is broken.
Violation Type 2: Range-Sum Inconsistency
A "between" market's price must equal the difference of two "above" markets:
P($68k < BTC < $70k) == P(BTC > $68k) - P(BTC > $70k)
If the market prices the range at 54% but the above-markets imply 48%, that's 6% of mathematical arbitrage.
Why This Works
1. Retail trades in silos β most users view each market independently and don't cross-reference the full strike ladder 2. No options infrastructure β unlike traditional markets, there's no market maker maintaining curve consistency across strikes 3. Mathematical, not opinion β the violations are provable inconsistencies, not subjective edge calls 4. High volume β BTC price markets are the most actively traded category on Polymarket
Signal Logic
1. Discover all crypto price-threshold markets via keyword search
2. Parse each question: extract asset (BTC/ETH), strike price(s), date, and type (above/between/dip)
3. Group into curves by (asset, date)
4. For each curve with 2+ points:
- Check monotonicity across "above" markets
- Check range-sum consistency for "between" markets
5. Rank violations by magnitude
6. Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD)
7. Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
| python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
| python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade at full conviction |
| SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade |
| SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 5000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
| SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.08 | Max bid-ask spread |
| SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) |
| SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions |
| SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES only if market probability <= this |
| SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO only if market probability >= this |
| SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION | 0.04 | Min curve violation magnitude to trigger a trade |
Edge Thesis
Traditional options markets have market makers who enforce curve consistency (no-arbitrage pricing). Polymarket has no such mechanism β each market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when:
This skill treats the strike ladder as a probability lattice and trades the repair.
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)