Polymarket Biotech Trader

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name: polymarket-biotech-trader description: Trades Polymarket prediction markets on FDA drug approvals, biotech IPOs, clinical trial outcomes, pharma M&A, and precision medicine milestones. Use when you want to capture alpha on high-impact binary biotech events using PDUFA dates, clinical trial registries, and FDA calendar signals. metadata: author: Diagnostikon version: '1.0' displayName: Biotech & FDA Trader difficulty: advanced

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Biotech & FDA Trader

> This is a template. > The default signal is keyword discovery + FDA PDUFA calendar alignment — remix it with ClinicalTrials.gov API for trial status, BioMedTracker historical approval rates by indication, or biotech earnings call sentiment analysis. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The global biotech market is valued at $1.77 trillion (2025) and growing to $6.34 trillion by 2035 (13.6% CAGR). Biotech prediction markets have some of the highest information density — FDA decisions are binary, have clear dates (PDUFA), and are well-studied. This skill trades:

FDA approvals — Breakthrough therapy designations, CRISPR/oncology approvals, GLP-1 next-gen

Clinical trials — Phase 3 outcomes, trial enrollment milestones

Biotech IPOs — Class of 2026 IPO announcement and performance markets

Pharma M&A — Large-cap acquisition deals in oncology, AI drug discovery

Precision medicine — CAR-T, mRNA vaccine, liquid biopsy milestones

Key insight: FDA approval rates by indication are well-documented. When Polymarket prices deviate significantly from historical base rates, there's tradeable edge.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: PDUFA Date Calendar + Base Rate Analysis

1. Discover active biotech/FDA markets on Polymarket 2. Match markets to FDA PDUFA calendar (public, updated monthly) 3. Look up historical approval rates for the specific drug class/indication 4. Compare base rate (e.g., oncology breakthrough therapy ~85% approval) vs market price 5. If market prices approval at <70% for a high-base-rate indication, buy YES 6. Use context check to avoid overtraded markets before major catalysts

Remix Ideas

ClinicalTrials.gov API: Monitor trial status changes (recruiting → completed) as leading indicator

BioMedTracker / Citeline: Historical approval rate databases by indication

FDA press releases: Real-time monitoring for early approval/rejection signals

Biotech Twitter: KOL (Key Opinion Leader) sentiment before PDUFA dates

Short interest data: High short interest in a biotech before PDUFA = market expects rejection — price this in

Market Categories Tracked

BIOTECH_KEYWORDS = [
    "FDA", "approval", "CRISPR", "cancer", "oncology", "clinical trial",
    "phase 3", "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "mRNA", "CAR-T",
    "Alzheimer", "GLP-1", "biotech", "pharma", "M&A",
    "IPO", "diagnostic", "liquid biopsy", "gene editing",
    "sickle cell", "precision medicine", "antibody"
]

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Max position size | $35 USDC | Binary events warrant careful sizing | | Min market volume | $5,000 | FDA markets attract informed traders | | Max bid-ask spread | 10% | Allow wider for rare disease markets | | Min days to resolution | 7 | Don't enter days before PDUFA | | Max open positions | 6 | Biotech events are correlated |

FDA Approval Base Rates (Reference)

| Indication | Historical Approval Rate | |-----------|--------------------------| | Oncology (breakthrough designation) | ~85% | | Rare disease (orphan drug) | ~70% | | CNS/Neurology | ~55% | | General approval (Phase 3 success) | ~65% | | CRISPR/gene therapy (novel) | ~45% |

Key Data Sources

FDA PDUFA Calendar: https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-4-fda-drug-review

ClinicalTrials.gov API: https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/

SEC EDGAR (biotech S-1 filings): https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22biotech%22&dateRange=custom

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-biotech-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 20 minutes (*/20 * * * *). FDA decisions are infrequent but high-impact; moderate polling is sufficient.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 35 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 5000 | Min market volume filter (USD) | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 7 | Min days until market resolves | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 6 | Max concurrent open positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/

GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.