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BytesAgain β€Ί Skills β€Ί Polymarket Elon Tweets
πŸ¦€ ClawHub

Polymarket Elon Tweets

by @simmer

Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use wh...

Versionv1.3.5
Downloads2,336
#crypto#requires-wallet#requires-sensitive-credentials#clawhub
TERMINAL
clawhub install polymarket-elon-tweets

πŸ“– About This Skill

name: polymarket-elon-tweets description: 'Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.' metadata: author: Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "1.3.2" displayName: Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader difficulty: advanced attribution: Strategy inspired by @noovd

Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

  • Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically
  • Set up @noovd-style bucket trading
  • Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events
  • Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions
  • Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds

    • How the Strategy Works

    Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

    1. Get XTracker pace β€” XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total 2. Find center bucket β€” The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace 3. Buy adjacent buckets β€” Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread) 4. Check combined cost β€” Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold) 5. One bucket pays $1 β€” When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs

    Setup Flow

    When user asks to install or configure this skill:

    1. Install the Simmer SDK 

       pip install simmer-sdk

    2. Ask for Simmer API key - They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard β†’ SDK tab - Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

    3. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading) - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC) - Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically β€” no manual signing needed

    4. Ask about settings (or confirm defaults) - Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90Β’) - Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00) - Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center Β± 1) - Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65Β’)

    5. Save settings to config.json or environment variables

    6. Set up cron (disabled by default β€” user must enable scheduling)

    Configuration

    | Setting | Env Variable | Config Key | Default | Description | |---------|-------------|------------|---------|-------------| | Max bucket sum | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM | max_bucket_sum | 0.90 | Only buy if cluster prices sum < this | | Max position | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION | max_position_usd | 5.00 | Maximum USD per bucket | | Bucket spread | SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD | bucket_spread | 1 | Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets) | | Smart sizing % | SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT | sizing_pct | 0.05 | % of balance per trade | | Max trades/run | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES | max_trades_per_run | 6 | Maximum trades per scan cycle | | Exit threshold | SIMMER_ELON_EXIT | exit_threshold | 0.65 | Sell when bucket price above this | | Slippage max | SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAX | slippage_max_pct | 0.05 | Skip trade if slippage exceeds this | | Min position | SIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION | min_position_usd | 2.00 | Floor for smart sizing (USD) | | Data source | SIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE | data_source | xtracker | Data source (xtracker) | | Order type | SIMMER_ELON_ORDER_TYPE | order_type | GTC | Order type: GTC (good-til-cancelled) or FAK (fill-and-kill) |

    Config priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults.

    Quick Commands

    # Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py
    Detailed position list
    
python scripts/status.py --positions

    API Reference:

  • Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
  • Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
  • Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
  • Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

    • Running the Skill

    # Dry run (default β€” shows opportunities, no trades)
python elon_tweets.py
    Execute real trades
    
python elon_tweets.py --live
    With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
    
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing
    Show XTracker stats only
    
python elon_tweets.py --stats
    Check positions only
    
python elon_tweets.py --positions
    View config
    
python elon_tweets.py --config
    Update config
    
python elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00
    Disable safeguards (not recommended)
    
python elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards
    Quiet mode β€” only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron)
    
python elon_tweets.py --live --quiet
    Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise
    
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet

    How It Works

    Each cycle the script: 1. Fetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events 2. Gets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining 3. Searches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing) 4. Finds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection 5. Evaluates adjacent buckets (center Β± spread) 6. Entry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum β†’ BUY each bucket 7. Exit: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold 8. Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage 9. Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:elon-tweets for tracking

    Auto-Import

    If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them:

  • Derives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title
  • Uses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events)
  • Imports all outcome buckets as a group
  • Counts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count

    • Smart Sizing

    With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:

  • 5% of available USDC balance (configurable via sizing_pct)
  • Capped at max position setting ($5.00 default)
  • Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable

    • Safeguards

    Before trading, the skill checks:

  • Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
  • Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%
  • Market status: Skips closed or resolved markets
  • Extreme prices: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2%

    • Disable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).

    Source Tagging

    All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:elon-tweets". This means:

  • Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy
  • Other skills won't sell your tweet positions
  • You can track tweet trading P&L separately

    • Example Output

    🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader
==================================================
    βš™οΈ Configuration:
  Max bucket sum:  $0.90
  Max position:    $5.00
  Bucket spread:   1 (center Β± 1 = 3 buckets)
  Exit threshold:  65%
  Data source:     xtracker
    πŸ“Š XTracker Stats:
  Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20
  Current count: 187 posts
  Pace: 243 projected
  Days remaining: 2.3
    🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279
  240-259: $0.35
  220-239: $0.22
  260-279: $0.18
  Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) βœ…
      Executing trades...
  βœ… Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35
  βœ… Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22
  βœ… Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18
    πŸ“Š Summary:
  Events scanned: 2
  Clusters evaluated: 2
  Trades executed: 3
  Exits: 0

    Troubleshooting

    "No XTracker trackings found"

  • XTracker may not have active Elon tweet events
  • New events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays

    • "Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold"

  • Buckets are too expensive β€” edge is too thin
  • Wait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread

    • "No matching Simmer markets found"

  • Markets may not be imported yet β€” skill will auto-import on next run
  • Check that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)

    • "Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning"

  • You've been changing direction too much on this market
  • Wait before trading again

    • "External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

  • WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
  • The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present β€” no manual signing code needed
  • Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x
  • Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code β€” the SDK handles it

    • "Balance shows $0 but I have funds on Polygon"

  • Polymarket V2 (live 2026-04-28) uses pUSD (PolyUSD, 1:1 backed by USDC.e). If your wallet holds USDC.e, migrate at simmer.markets/dashboard with one click (~30s)
  • If you bridged native USDC (Circle), swap to USDC.e first, then migrate to pUSD
  • Full migration guide: docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration

    • "API key invalid"

  • Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard β†’ SDK tab

    • βš™οΈ Configuration

    | Setting | Env Variable | Config Key | Default | Description | |---------|-------------|------------|---------|-------------| | Max bucket sum | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM | max_bucket_sum | 0.90 | Only buy if cluster prices sum < this | | Max position | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION | max_position_usd | 5.00 | Maximum USD per bucket | | Bucket spread | SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD | bucket_spread | 1 | Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets) | | Smart sizing % | SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT | sizing_pct | 0.05 | % of balance per trade | | Max trades/run | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES | max_trades_per_run | 6 | Maximum trades per scan cycle | | Exit threshold | SIMMER_ELON_EXIT | exit_threshold | 0.65 | Sell when bucket price above this | | Slippage max | SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAX | slippage_max_pct | 0.05 | Skip trade if slippage exceeds this | | Min position | SIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION | min_position_usd | 2.00 | Floor for smart sizing (USD) | | Data source | SIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE | data_source | xtracker | Data source (xtracker) | | Order type | SIMMER_ELON_ORDER_TYPE | order_type | GTC | Order type: GTC (good-til-cancelled) or FAK (fill-and-kill) |

    Config priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults.

    πŸ“‹ Tips & Best Practices

    "No XTracker trackings found"

  • XTracker may not have active Elon tweet events
  • New events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays

    • "Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold"

  • Buckets are too expensive β€” edge is too thin
  • Wait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread

    • "No matching Simmer markets found"

  • Markets may not be imported yet β€” skill will auto-import on next run
  • Check that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)

    • "Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning"

  • You've been changing direction too much on this market
  • Wait before trading again

    • "External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

  • WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
  • The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present β€” no manual signing code needed
  • Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x
  • Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code β€” the SDK handles it

    • "Balance shows $0 but I have funds on Polygon"

  • Polymarket V2 (live 2026-04-28) uses pUSD (PolyUSD, 1:1 backed by USDC.e). If your wallet holds USDC.e, migrate at simmer.markets/dashboard with one click (~30s)
  • If you bridged native USDC (Circle), swap to USDC.e first, then migrate to pUSD
  • Full migration guide: docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration

    • "API key invalid"

  • Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard β†’ SDK tab