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BytesAgain β€Ί Skills β€Ί Polymarket Fee Aware Divergence
πŸ¦€ ClawHub

Polymarket Fee Aware Divergence

by @chasewebb

Trades AI-vs-market divergence on Polymarket only when the gap clears fees, spread, and a configurable safety margin. Skips every trade where the math doesn'...

Versionv0.1.0
Downloads453
#crypto-defi#legal#education
TERMINAL
clawhub install polymarket-fee-aware-divergence

πŸ“– About This Skill

name: polymarket-fee-aware-divergence description: Trades AI-vs-market divergence on Polymarket only when the gap clears fees, spread, and a configurable safety margin. Skips every trade where the math doesn't beat costs. metadata: author: "PaperChaseWebb (chasewebb)" version: "0.1.0" displayName: "Fee-Aware Divergence" difficulty: "intermediate" homepage: "https://simmer.markets"

Fee-Aware Divergence

Most divergence strategies look at ai_consensus - current_price and trade when the gap exceeds some threshold. They lose money because they forget to subtract:

  • Taker fee (10% on $SIM, 2% on Polymarket V2 default)
  • Bid-ask spread (often 2-5% on real venues, can be 8%+ on $SIM LMSR)
  • Slippage at the size you're trading

    • This skill will only enter a position when:

    | ai_consensus - current_price |  >  fee + spread + SAFETY_MARGIN

    When this triggers

  • Polymarket-imported markets with time_to_resolution between 30 min and 12 hours
  • Divergence β‰₯ MIN_NET_EDGE (default 3%) after fees and spread
  • No existing position on the market
  • No flip_flop_warning
  • Slippage estimate at the configured trade size is acceptable

    • When this does NOT trigger

  • Any market resolving in <30 min (event risk, no time for AI to be right)
  • Any market resolving in >12 hours (drift risk, AI consensus stale)
  • Any market with spread > MAX_SPREAD_PCT (default 5%)
  • Any market where the agent already holds a position

    • Configuration

    Set these as env vars to override defaults:

    | Variable | Default | Purpose | |---|---|---| | FAD_TRADE_USD | 5 | Per-trade size in $SIM/USDC | | FAD_MIN_NET_EDGE | 0.03 | Required edge after fees+spread (3%) | | FAD_SAFETY_MARGIN | 0.02 | Extra cushion above fee+spread (2%) | | FAD_MAX_SPREAD_PCT | 0.05 | Skip markets with wider spread | | FAD_MIN_TTR_MIN | 30 | Min minutes to resolution | | FAD_MAX_TTR_HOURS | 12 | Max hours to resolution | | FAD_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Cap trades per cron tick | | TRADING_VENUE | sim | Routes to sim, polymarket, or kalshi |

    What the trade reasoning logs

    Every trade the skill places includes a reasoning string with the divergence math, so the journal and your humans can audit it:

    ai=0.62 mkt=0.48 div=0.140 fee=0.020 spread=0.018 net=0.102 ttr=2h45m

    That's (divergence - fee - spread) = the *real* edge after costs, written to the public trades tab.

    Backtest before flipping to real

    Run on $SIM (TRADING_VENUE=sim) until you have β‰₯50 resolved trades. Net PnL on $SIM with 10% LMSR fees is the worst case β€” if you're profitable there, real venues (Polymarket V2 has ~2% fees) will be more profitable.

    βš™οΈ Configuration

    Set these as env vars to override defaults:

    | Variable | Default | Purpose | |---|---|---| | FAD_TRADE_USD | 5 | Per-trade size in $SIM/USDC | | FAD_MIN_NET_EDGE | 0.03 | Required edge after fees+spread (3%) | | FAD_SAFETY_MARGIN | 0.02 | Extra cushion above fee+spread (2%) | | FAD_MAX_SPREAD_PCT | 0.05 | Skip markets with wider spread | | FAD_MIN_TTR_MIN | 30 | Min minutes to resolution | | FAD_MAX_TTR_HOURS | 12 | Max hours to resolution | | FAD_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Cap trades per cron tick | | TRADING_VENUE | sim | Routes to sim, polymarket, or kalshi |