Polymarket Ladder Nhl Hockey Trader

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name: polymarket-ladder-nhl-hockey-trader description: Trades monotonicity violations in NHL hockey O/U market ladders and spread-vs-total consistency on Polymarket. Each game spawns multiple O/U lines that must be monotonically decreasing — when the ladder is broken, the mispriced line reverts. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Ladder NHL Hockey Curve Trader difficulty: advanced

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Ladder — NHL Hockey Curve Trader

> This is a template. > The default signal detects monotonicity violations in NHL hockey O/U ladders and spread-vs-total inconsistencies -- remix it with additional leagues, period-based markets, or live odds feeds. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, ladder grouping, monotonicity checks, spread consistency, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists multiple O/U lines for each NHL game at different totals:

Wild vs Bruins: O/U 4.5 = 62%, O/U 5.5 = 45%, O/U 7.5 = 12%

Maple Leafs vs Blues: O/U 4.5 = 65%, O/U 5.5 = 50%, O/U 6.5 = 30%, O/U 7.5 = 15%

Spread markets: "Spread: Wild (-1.5)" = 42%

These O/U markets form a ladder that must be monotonically decreasing:

P(O/U 4.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 5.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 6.5 OVER) >= P(O/U 7.5 OVER)

Additionally, spread markets constrain the O/U distribution -- a large spread (one team heavily favored) implies a scoring profile that must be consistent with the total.

This skill reconstructs each game's full ladder and trades where it is mathematically broken.

The Edge: NHL Ladder Arbitrage

Violation Type 1: O/U Monotonicity

Within the same game, the probability of going OVER must decrease as the line increases. If a higher line is priced above a lower line, the curve is broken -- pure structural arbitrage:

If P(O/U 5.5 OVER) > P(O/U 4.5 OVER):
    Buy YES on O/U 4.5 (underpriced)
    Buy NO on O/U 5.5 (overpriced)

This also checks non-adjacent pairs (e.g., O/U 7.5 vs O/U 4.5) for larger violations that span multiple rungs of the ladder.

Violation Type 2: Spread-vs-Total Consistency

A large spread implies one team is heavily favored, which shifts the expected scoring distribution:

If spread >= 2.5 goals, the game is expected to be high-scoring, so P(O/U 5.5 OVER) should be at least 40%

If spread >= 1.5 goals, P(O/U 4.5 OVER) should be at least 50%

When the O/U curve is inconsistent with the spread, the total is likely mispriced.

Why This Works

1. Retail trades in silos -- most users bet on individual O/U lines without cross-referencing the full ladder 2. No market maker enforcement -- unlike sportsbooks, there is no central entity maintaining consistency across O/U lines for the same game 3. Mathematical, not opinion -- monotonicity violations are provable inconsistencies in the implied probability distribution 4. NHL-specific density -- NHL games generate multiple O/U lines (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) plus spread markets, creating a rich surface for inconsistencies 5. Injury and lineup news -- goalie changes and late scratches move individual lines without propagating to the full ladder

Signal Logic

1. Discover all NHL-related markets via keyword search (team names, "NHL", "hockey", "O/U") 2. Fallback to get_markets(limit=200) if keyword search yields few results 3. Parse each question: extract (game_key, ou_line) for O/U markets; (game_key, spread_team, spread_value) for spread markets 4. Filter with NHL team regex, exclude non-hockey matches 5. Group O/U markets into ladders by game_key 6. Match spread markets to game ladders by team name overlap 7. For each game ladder with 2+ O/U markets: - Check monotonicity: P(OVER) must decrease as line increases - Check non-adjacent pairs for larger violations 8. For games with spread + O/U markets: - Check spread-vs-total consistency 9. Rank violations by magnitude 10. Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (YES_THRESHOLD / NO_THRESHOLD) 11. Size by conviction, not flat amount

Remix Signal Ideas

NHL API live stats: Use the NHL API (api-web.nhle.com) for live game stats such as shot attempts, Corsi, and Fenwick ratings to predict whether a game is trending over or under before the O/U lines adjust

Expected goals (xG) model: Incorporate MoneyPuck.com expected goals data to build an independent estimate of game totals and compare against Polymarket's implied distribution

Historical O/U line movement: Track historical over/under line movement data from sportsbook APIs to detect when Polymarket's O/U ladder lags behind sharp market moves

Weather and arena conditions: Factor in outdoor game conditions (Winter Classic, Stadium Series), altitude (Denver), and ice quality to adjust scoring expectations -- outdoor games and altitude historically produce different scoring profiles

Back-to-back scheduling fatigue: Use the NHL schedule to identify teams playing on back-to-back nights, which correlates with weaker goaltending and higher totals -- trade the O/U ladder when fatigue is not yet priced in

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |---|---|---| | python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

autostart: false and cron: null mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |---|---|---| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |---|---|---| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade at full conviction | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 5000 | Min market volume filter (USD) | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.08 | Max bid-ask spread | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES only if market probability <= this | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO only if market probability >= this | | SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION | 0.05 | Min ladder violation magnitude to trigger a trade |

Edge Thesis

Traditional sportsbooks have professional line-setters who enforce consistency across all O/U lines for the same game. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each O/U market (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied scoring distribution, especially when:

Goalie changes or injury news moves one O/U line but not others

New O/U lines are added at different totals without re-pricing existing ones

Large directional flow on one line does not propagate to adjacent lines

Spread markets move on team news but the O/U ladder does not adjust

This skill treats the full O/U ladder as a consistency curve and trades the repair.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/

GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk