Polymarket Optimizer

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name: polymarket-optimizer description: Automatic parameter optimizer for polymarket-executor. Reads performance_metrics.json every 6 hours, analyzes win rates and P&L per strategy, adjusts learned_config.json to improve future performance. Also builds paper trade metrics and assesses live trading readiness. Part of the Wesley Agent Ecosystem — mirrors crypto-executor-optimizer pattern. version: 1.0.0 metadata: openclaw: emoji: "🧠" requires: bins: ["python3"] env: required: [] optional: - TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN - TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID - WORKSPACE network_behavior: makes_requests: true endpoints_allowed: - "https://api.telegram.org/bot*" requires_credentials: false uses_websocket: false security_level: "L1 - Read/Write local files only" author: "Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)" license: "MIT" homepage: "https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-optimizer" repository: "https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-optimizer"

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Polymarket Optimizer — Adaptive Parameter Tuner

🧠 WHAT IT DOES

Reads trading performance from polymarket-executor, analyzes what works, and adjusts parameters automatically.

Runs every 6 hours via OpenClaw cron job. Zero manual intervention required.

Input files (written by executor):

performance_metrics.json — per-strategy win rates, P&L, trade counts

paper_trades.json — all simulated trade records

portfolio.json — capital, positions, daily P&L

Output files (read by executor at next startup):

learned_config.json — updated thresholds, Kelly fraction, allocations

optimizer_log.jsonl — full history of every optimization run

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⚡ QUICK START

cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer
python3 polymarket_optimizer.py

Expected output:

============================================================
POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER v1.0.0
Run time: 2026-03-05 14:00:00 UTC
============================================================
[CONFIG] Loaded. Optimization #1
[PORTFOLIO] Health: HEALTHY
[PORTFOLIO] Capital: $102.34 | Return: 2.3%
[ANALYSIS] parity_arbitrage: EXCELLENT | WR=100.0% | Trades=8 | P&L=+0.523
[ANALYSIS] tail_end: GOOD | WR=75.0% | Trades=12 | P&L=+0.312
[OPTIMIZER] 2 adjustments made:
  🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015
  📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40%
[READINESS] Resolved trades: 8/30
[READINESS] Win rate: 84.6% (need 55%+)
[TELEGRAM] Report sent.
============================================================
OPTIMIZER COMPLETE
============================================================

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🔧 WHAT IT ADJUSTS

Strategy Thresholds

| If strategy is... | Action | |---|---| | Poor (WR < 50%) | Raise threshold → trade only best opportunities | | Underperforming (WR 50–65%) | Slight threshold increase | | Average (WR 65–80%) | No change | | Good (WR 65–80%, positive P&L) | No change | | Excellent (WR > 80%) | Lower threshold → capture more volume |

Capital Allocation

| If strategy is... | Action | |---|---| | Poor | Reduce allocation (min 5–10%) | | Excellent | Increase allocation (max 50–70%) |

Allocations always normalized to sum to 100%.

Kelly Fraction

| Portfolio health | Action | |---|---| | Critical (return < -10%) | Reduce Kelly → smaller positions | | Excellent (return > 10%, WR > 65%) | Increase Kelly → larger positions |

Scan Frequency

| Condition | Action | |---|---| | WR > 80% + 20+ trades | Scan faster (min 120s) | | Portfolio warning/critical | Scan slower (max 600s) |

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📊 LIVE READINESS ASSESSMENT

Every run evaluates whether paper trading results justify going live.

4 criteria must ALL pass:

| Criterion | Threshold | |---|---| | Resolved trades | ≥ 30 | | Win rate | ≥ 55% | | Total P&L | Positive | | Circuit breaker | Not active |

Telegram report includes readiness status automatically.

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📱 TELEGRAM REPORT

🧠 POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER REPORT
🕐 2026-03-05 14:00 UTC
🔄 Optimization #4
Portfolio Health: 🟢 HEALTHY
💰 Capital: $108.45
📈 Return: 8.5%
🎯 Win Rate: 76.9%
📊 Total Trades: 20
Strategy Performance:
  🚀 parity_arbitrage: 100.0% WR | 8 trades | P&L: +0.523
  ✅ tail_end: 75.0% WR | 12 trades | P&L: +0.312
Adjustments Made:
  🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015
  📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40%
  ⚖️ Allocations renormalized
Live Trading Readiness:
🔴 NOT YET READY
  ❌ Need 30+ resolved trades
  📊 Progress: 20/30 trades
  🎯 Win rate: 76.9% (need 55%+) ✅

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📁 FILES

| File | Location | Description | |---|---|---| | polymarket_optimizer.py | skills/polymarket-optimizer/ | Main optimizer script | | learned_config.json | WORKSPACE/ | Output — read by executor | | optimizer_log.jsonl | WORKSPACE/ | Full optimization history |

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⏰ CRON JOB

Add to OpenClaw cron configuration:

# Run optimizer every 6 hours
0 */6 * * * docker exec openclaw-yyvg-openclaw-1 python3 /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer/polymarket_optimizer.py

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Version: 1.0.0 | License: MIT | Author: Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)