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BytesAgain β€Ί Skills β€Ί Polymarket Sports Live
πŸ¦€ ClawHub

Polymarket Sports Live

by @mibayy

Exploits price lag between ESPN real-time scores and Polymarket sports markets. Uses Gaussian win-probability models for NBA/NFL/NHL and Poisson for soccer t...

Versionv2.0.5
Downloads610
Stars⭐ 1
#clawhub
TERMINAL
clawhub install polymarket-sports-live

πŸ“– About This Skill

name: polymarket-sports-live description: > Exploits price lag between ESPN real-time scores and Polymarket sports markets. Uses Gaussian win-probability models for NBA/NFL/NHL and Poisson for soccer to calculate fair odds from live game state. Trades when model probability diverges more than 10% from Polymarket price. metadata: author: "Mibayy" version: "2.0.5" displayName: "Live Sports Score Arbitrage" type: "automaton" difficulty: "intermediate"

Live Sports Score Arbitrage

Real-time live score arbitrage against Polymarket sports markets using ESPN data.

What It Does

Every 2 minutes, pulls live scores from ESPN's public API and calculates fair win probabilities using sport-specific statistical models:

| Sport | Model | Key Parameter | |-------|-------|--------------| | NBA | Gaussian | sigma = 12.5 points | | NFL | Gaussian | sigma = 13.5 points | | NHL | Gaussian | sigma = 1.5 goals | | Soccer | Poisson | lambda = 1.35 goals/90min |

Gaussian model: P(win) = CDF(lead / (sigma * sqrt(t_remaining / T)))

Poisson model: Calculates expected goals from current rate, sums probability of all winning scorelines.

Edge Source

Polymarket prices update slowly during live games - often 30-120 seconds behind real scoring events. ESPN's API updates near-instantly. This latency gap is the edge.

Scheduling

Runs every 2 minutes via cron (*/2 * * * *). Managed automaton (auto-executes on schedule). Only trades when divergence exceeds 10%.

Requirements

pip dependencies: simmer-sdk, requests

Environment variables:

  • SIMMER_API_KEY (required) - get from simmer.markets/dashboard
  • TRADING_VENUE (optional) - defaults to sim for paper trading, set to polymarket for real
  • SPORTS_DIVERGENCE_THRESHOLD (optional) - minimum divergence to trigger trade, defaults to 0.10 (10%)
  • SPORTS_TRADE_SIZE (optional) - trade size in USD, defaults to 20.0

    • Usage

    python sports_live.py                  # dry run (default, no trades)
python sports_live.py --live           # real trades via SimmerClient
python sports_live.py --live --quiet   # cron mode

    > Dry-run by default. Pass --live to execute real trades.

    Trade Execution Path

    1. sports_live.py fetches live scores from ESPN public API (no auth needed) 2. Calculates fair win probability using Gaussian (NBA/NFL/NHL) or Poisson (soccer) models 3. Finds matching Polymarket markets via SimmerClient.find_markets() 4. Compares model probability to Polymarket price, applies >10% divergence threshold 5. If --live: calls SimmerClient.trade() with market_id, side, amount, reasoning 6. If dry-run (default): logs the signal but does NOT execute any trade

    Security

  • All trades go through SimmerClient.trade() only. No direct CLOB or wallet access.
  • Reads SIMMER_API_KEY and optionally TRADING_VENUE from env. No other secrets.
  • No wallet private keys are required or read by this script.
  • Dry-run is the default. The --live flag must be explicitly passed to execute trades.

    • > Remixable Template: Fork this skill to adjust sigma values, add new > sports (MLB, tennis), change the divergence threshold, or plug in different > live score sources.

    πŸ’‘ Examples

    python sports_live.py                  # dry run (default, no trades)
python sports_live.py --live           # real trades via SimmerClient
python sports_live.py --live --quiet   # cron mode

    > Dry-run by default. Pass --live to execute real trades.