Polymarket Twitter Bin Decay Trader

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name: polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader description: Trades post-count bin markets by tracking elapsed time to identify mathematically dead bins that still hold residual probability. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit time-decay mispricing in Twitter post-count markets where bins can no longer resolve YES. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Twitter Bin Decay Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live"

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Twitter Bin Decay Trader

> This is a template. > The default signal estimates posts-so-far from elapsed time and daily rate — remix it with real-time post counting via Twitter API, Social Blade scrapers, or Polymarket order flow analysis. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As a posting period progresses, bins become mathematically eliminable. If Elon has estimated ~130 tweets after 2 of 3 days, the "40-64" bin is dead — but it might still trade at 5-10% because the market is slow to update.

This skill tracks the elapsed fraction of each market's period and computes which bins are still viable, which are dead, and which are on-trajectory.

Signal Logic

Viability Computation

1. Parse start/end dates from market question 2. Compute elapsed_fraction = (now - start) / (end - start) 3. Estimate posts_so_far = elapsed_fraction * daily_rate * period_days 4. Calculate reachable range: - max_total = posts_so_far + max_daily_rate * remaining_days - min_total = posts_so_far + 0.3 * daily_rate * remaining_days 5. If bin_lower > max_total → bin is dead (unreachable) 6. If bin_upper < min_total → bin is dead (already surpassed)

Max Daily Rates (Historical Extremes)

| Person | Avg Daily | Max Daily | Notes | |--------|-----------|-----------|-------| | Elon Musk | 65 | 120 | Thread storms can 2x rate | | Donald Trump | 23 | 50 | Rally days spike | | Vitalik | 8 | 20 | Conference days | | CZ | 12 | 30 | Exchange drama days |

Trading Dead Bins

Dead bin priced >62% → strong NO signal (sell the corpse)

Viable bin priced <38% and on-trajectory → YES signal (buy the survivor)

Conviction scales with both threshold distance AND viability confidence

Remix Ideas

Real-time post counting: Replace estimation with actual count from Twitter API

Velocity tracking: Track rate changes within the period (accelerating vs decelerating)

Multi-bin portfolio: Short dead bins and long viable bins simultaneously for hedge

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Max position size | $40 USDC | Per market | | Min market volume | $1,000 | Standard filter | | Max bid-ask spread | 10% | Default threshold | | Min days to resolution | 0 | Post-count markets are short-lived | | Max open positions | 8 | Diversify across bins |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-bin-decay-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 1000 | Min market volume filter (USD) | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until market resolves | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/

GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.