Polymarket Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

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name: polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader description: Detects crisis and news spikes across other Polymarket markets and adjusts expected posting rates upward for post-count bins. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. Use when you want to exploit the correlation between global events and public figure posting frequency. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live"

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Twitter Sentiment Spike Trader

> This is a template. > The default signal uses other Polymarket markets as a crisis barometer — remix it with VIX/fear indices, Google Trends velocity, news API sentiment, or social listening platforms. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

When a geopolitical crisis erupts, politicians tweet 50% more. When crypto crashes, Elon and CZ spike their posting rates. Post-count bin markets are priced on baseline cadence — they don't factor in real-time news intensity.

This skill uses OTHER Polymarket markets as a crisis detector. Extreme probabilities on war/crypto/health markets = crisis mode = higher posting rates expected.

Signal Logic

Crisis Detection

1. Scan all non-posting markets on the account 2. Identify markets at extreme probabilities (>85% or <15%) with crisis-adjacent keywords 3. Match crisis topics to person affinity (Trump reacts to war, Elon to crypto) 4. Compute per-person crisis multiplier

Person Crisis Boosts

| Person | Max Crisis Boost | Top Triggers | |--------|-----------------|-------------| | Trump | 1.50x | War, sanctions, tariffs, impeachment | | Elon | 1.40x | BTC, tariffs, bans, AI | | CZ | 1.30x | BTC, Binance, SEC, hacks | | Vitalik | 1.25x | ETH, BTC, DeFi, regulation |

Cross-Market Intelligence

The skill reads your entire Simmer portfolio as a sentiment layer. The more extreme markets you have imported, the better the crisis signal.

Remix Ideas

VIX correlation: Track VIX changes as a universal fear proxy

Google Trends velocity: Detect sudden search spikes on person-relevant topics

News API: Real-time headline sentiment scoring

Twitter API: Direct activity monitoring (mentions, replies, quote tweets)

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Max position size | $40 USDC | Per market | | Min market volume | $1,000 | Standard filter | | Max bid-ask spread | 10% | Default threshold | | Min days to resolution | 0 | Post-count markets are short-lived | | Max open positions | 8 | Diversify across events |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-twitter-sentiment-spike-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null — the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

| Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 40 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) | | SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 1000 | Min market volume filter (USD) | | SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (0.10 = 10%) | | SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 0 | Min days until market resolves | | SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions | | SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value | | SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value | | SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/

GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk

Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.