Prediction Market Aggregator

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name: prediction-market-aggregator version: 1.0.0 description: Cross-market prediction market data aggregator. Covers Polymarket, Manifold, Metaculus, and Kalshi. Finds arbitrage between markets, tracks consensus drift, compares implied probabilities, and detects edge. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI. Use when you need cross-market prediction market data, arbitrage detection, consensus comparison, or unified prediction market signals. author: JamieRossouw tags: [prediction-markets, polymarket, manifold, metaculus, arbitrage, domeapi-alternative]

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Prediction Market Aggregator

Cross-market prediction data, edge detection, and arbitrage scanner. Open-source alternative to DomeAPI.

Markets Covered

| Market | Assets | API | Auth | |--------|--------|-----|------| | Polymarket | BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP hourly + major events | CLOB REST | API key + EIP-712 | | Manifold Markets | Thousands of community markets | REST | API key (free) | | Metaculus | Long-form forecasts, aggregated consensus | REST | None (public) | | Kalshi | US-regulated binary contracts | REST | API key |

Core Features

1. Cross-Market Arbitrage Scanner

Find the same question priced differently across markets:

BTC >$70k by March? 
  Polymarket: 62% 
  Manifold: 71%  ← 9% gap → sell Manifold, buy Polymarket
  Metaculus: 58%

2. Consensus Drift Detection

Track how market consensus shifts over time:

Alert when market moves >10% within 30 minutes

Detect smart money vs retail flow divergence

Flag markets where Metaculus (superforecasters) disagrees >15% with Polymarket

3. Polymarket CLOB Integration

Full py-clob-client compatible:

Scan hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets

Calculate edge vs TA-implied probability (Argus strategy)

Counter-consensus detection (L023): market >70% one-sided + TA disagrees = bet

4. Unified API Response Format

{
  "question": "BTC up by 1pm ET?",
  "markets": {
    "polymarket": { "yes": 0.62, "volume": 455000, "url": "..." },
    "manifold": { "yes": 0.71, "traders": 142, "url": "..." }
  },
  "arbitrage": { "detected": true, "gap": 0.09, "direction": "buy_poly_sell_manifold" },
  "consensus": { "weighted_avg": 0.65, "superforecaster_avg": 0.58 }
}

How to Use

Ask: *"Is there arbitrage between Polymarket and Manifold on BTC price?"* Ask: *"What markets have the widest consensus gap right now?"* Ask: *"Find me the highest-edge Polymarket bet using cross-market consensus"*

DomeAPI Migration Guide

If you used DomeAPI for cross-market data:

/v1/markets → Use Polymarket CLOB /markets + Manifold /v0/markets + Metaculus /questions

/v1/arbitrage → Use this skill's cross-market scanner

/v1/consensus → Use Metaculus community predictions as consensus baseline

Argus Integration

This skill plugs directly into the Argus edge detection strategy: 1. Get TA score from argus-edge skill 2. Compare vs cross-market consensus from this skill 3. If TA + consensus both diverge from Polymarket price → max conviction bet