Prediction Market Smoke Test

---

name: prediction_market_smoke_test description: A minimal test skill for prediction-market workflows. Use when the user wants a quick checklist for evaluating a prediction market, drafting a thesis, or testing that this skill installs correctly from ClawHub.

---

Prediction Market Smoke Test

This is a minimal publish-and-install test skill.

Use this skill when the user wants to:

sanity-check whether a prediction market question is well-formed

draft a quick trading thesis before opening a position

verify that this skill can be installed from ClawHub

Quick Workflow

When this skill is used, follow this short workflow:

1. Restate the market question in one sentence. 2. Identify the resolution source and what event would count as a YES result. 3. List the top 3 reasons the market may be mispriced. 4. Give a one-paragraph bullish case and one-paragraph bearish case. 5. End with a concise checklist: - resolution source confirmed - time to resolution understood - major ambiguity checked - current thesis stated clearly

Output Template

Use this structure when helpful:

Market Summary

Question:

YES means:

Resolution source:

Deadline:

Possible Edge

Reason 1:

Reason 2:

Reason 3:

Bull Case

Bear Case

Final Checklist

Resolution source confirmed

Ambiguity reviewed

Thesis written

Notes

This skill is intentionally simple so it is easy to publish, install, and validate.

After confirming this works through ClawHub, you can replace it with your real prediction-market skill.

This skill is intentionally simple so it is easy to publish, install, and validate.

After confirming this works through ClawHub, you can replace it with your real prediction-market skill.