Prediction Market Watcher

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name: prediction-market-watcher description: Monitor, analyze, and trade on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets. Use when the user wants to check open positions, scan for value bets, place bets, check settlement status, or get a portfolio summary on Kalshi or Polymarket. Also use proactively when a bet is approaching settlement time.

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Prediction Market Watcher

Connects to Kalshi (and Polymarket) to track positions, scan markets, and place bets.

Setup

Kalshi (live trading, US):

API key + RSA private key required

Config lives at kalshi-agent/config.json in the workspace

Key file: kalshi-agent/kalshi.key

Scripts use kalshi_client.py with RSA-PSS signed requests

Polymarket (coming soon — read-only via public API for now)

Common Tasks

Check portfolio / open positions

cd ~/workspace/kalshi-agent && python3 kalshi_agent.py --status
cd ~/workspace/kalshi-agent && python3 kalshi_agent.py --positions

Check a specific market

from kalshi_client import KalshiClient
import json
c = KalshiClient('KEY_ID', 'kalshi.key')
market = c.get('/trade-api/v2/markets/TICKER_HERE')
print(json.dumps(market, indent=2))

Key fields: yes_bid_dollars, yes_ask_dollars, floor_strike, cap_strike, close_time, rules_primary

Check BTC/crypto price vs bet range

Fetch live price via web search or Brave API

Compare against floor_strike / cap_strike from market data

Settlement uses CF Benchmarks RTI (60s avg before close) — not Coinbase/Google price

Scan for opportunities

cd ~/workspace/kalshi-agent && python3 kalshi_agent.py --scan

Place a bet (manual)

order = c.create_order(ticker="TICKER", side="yes", action="buy", count=N, limit_price=CENTS)

limit_price is in cents (e.g. 8 = $0.08)

count = number of $1 contracts

Always check risk_state.json limits before placing

Settlement reminders

Use a cron job scheduled ~15 min before close_time

Message Katie on Telegram with: current price, range, whether we're in/out, time remaining

Risk Rules (from risk.py)

Max $20/day budget

Max 5 open positions

Max single bet: $5 (high confidence), $3 (medium), $1 (low)

Check can_bet() before any auto-place

API Base URL

https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/

Key endpoints:

GET /portfolio/positions → open positions (use /trade-api/v2/portfolio/positions)

GET /markets/{ticker} → single market detail

GET /markets?status=open&limit=100 → scan markets

GET /portfolio/balance → balance + portfolio value

POST /portfolio/orders → place order

See references/kalshi-api.md for full endpoint reference.

Polymarket (read-only)

Public REST API — no auth needed for reads:

GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&limit=20

See references/polymarket-api.md for details.

Kalshi (live trading, US):

API key + RSA private key required

Config lives at kalshi-agent/config.json in the workspace

Key file: kalshi-agent/kalshi.key

Scripts use kalshi_client.py with RSA-PSS signed requests

Polymarket (coming soon — read-only via public API for now)