Scenario Planning

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name: scenario-planning description: > Perform project management what-if (scenario) analysis to simulate risks, delays, and resource changes. Use when planning schedules, assessing uncertainty, or evaluating project impacts in tools like Excel, MS Project, or Primavera.

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What-if Scenario Planning (WISA)

When to Use

Use this skill when:

A project plan needs risk simulation before execution

The user asks “what if this changes?” in a project context

There is uncertainty in schedule, cost, or resources

The user is working in Excel, MS Project, or similar tools

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Core Objective

Simulate alternate project scenarios by modifying key variables (duration, resources, cost) and evaluate their impact on:

Project timeline

Critical path

Total cost

Resource utilization

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Execution Steps

Step 1: Establish Baseline Plan

Ensure a complete baseline exists:

Tasks with durations

Dependencies (network/PERT)

Resources assigned

Cost estimates

If missing → ask user to define baseline first.

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Step 2: Identify Variables

Extract or ask for uncertain variables:

Resource availability

Task duration variability

Budget constraints

External risks (delays, logistics, approvals)

Focus only on high-impact variables (max 3 per scenario).

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Step 3: Define Scenario

Create a structured scenario:

Format:

Scenario Name:

Variable Change:

Duration/Impact Change:

Time Window (if applicable):

Example:

Resource A unavailable for 3 days starting Day 10

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Step 4: Modify Project Model

If Excel:

Adjust input cells (duration/resource %)

Use:

- Scenario Manager - Data Tables

If MS Project / Primavera:

Duplicate baseline

Modify:

- Task duration - Resource allocation - Dependencies if needed

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Step 5: Simulate Impact

Recalculate project plan and capture:

New project duration

Critical path changes

Cost variation

Delayed milestones

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Step 6: Compare with Baseline

Create structured comparison:

| Metric | Baseline | Scenario | |--------|----------|----------| | Duration | | | | Cost | | | | Critical Path | | |

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Step 7: Evaluate Acceptability

Decide:

Acceptable → proceed with scenario plan

Not acceptable → propose mitigation:

- Add resources - Re-sequence tasks - Increase buffer

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Step 8: Recommend Action

Always provide:

Impact summary

Decision recommendation

Optional mitigation strategies

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Output Format

Return results in this structure:

Scenario Summary

Scenario:

Key Change:

Impact Analysis

Duration Change:

Cost Impact:

Critical Path Impact:

Recommendation

Decision:

Suggested Actions:

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Rules

Do NOT simulate without a baseline

Limit scenarios to avoid combinatorial explosion

Prefer clarity over complexity

Always quantify impact (time/cost)

If data is missing → ask user before proceeding

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Notes

This is deterministic scenario analysis (WISA)

For probabilistic analysis, suggest Monte Carlo simulation

Best used during planning and scheduling phase

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Validation

Before finalizing:

Ensure dependencies are preserved

Check calculations consistency

Validate assumptions with user context

Confirm outputs are realistic (no negative durations, etc.)

This is deterministic scenario analysis (WISA)

For probabilistic analysis, suggest Monte Carlo simulation

Best used during planning and scheduling phase

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Do NOT simulate without a baseline

Limit scenarios to avoid combinatorial explosion

Prefer clarity over complexity

Always quantify impact (time/cost)

If data is missing → ask user before proceeding

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