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BytesAgain β€Ί Skills β€Ί Threshold Trader
πŸ¦€ ClawHub

Threshold Trader

by @skybinjf

Automatically trades prediction markets when prices deviate beyond your configured probability threshold with Kelly Criterion sizing and safety checks.

Versionv1.0.0
#crypto#requires-sensitive-credentials#clawhub
πŸ’‘ Examples

Paper trade YES when probability is above 70%:

export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.70"
export TRADE_SIDE="YES"
python threshold_trader.py

Real money trade NO when probability is below 30%:

export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.30"
export TRADE_SIDE="NO"
export SIMMER_VENUE="polymarket"
python threshold_trader.py --live

βš™οΈ Configuration

Configure via environment variables:

  • THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY: Your probability estimate (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.70
  • TRADE_SIDE: Which side to trade ("YES" or "NO"). Default: "YES"
  • SIMMER_VENUE: Trading venue ("sim" for paper, "polymarket" for real). Default: "sim"
  • SIMMER_MIN_EV: Minimum edge to trade (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.03 (3%)
  • SIMMER_KELLY_MULTIPLIER: Kelly fraction (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.25
  • MAX_POSITION_SIZE: Maximum position size in USD. Default: 100.0

    • View on ClawHub
    TERMINAL
    clawhub install threshold-trader

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