Trading Brain

trading-brain

Load Travis's personal trading strategy, rules, and mental models into the current session. Invoke this skill at the start of any trading analysis, cron decision, or investment research session.

When to Use

Starting a trading cron (pre-market, mid-morning, close review)

Making a buy/sell/hold decision

Researching a new position or sector

Running a next-wave scan

Any time you need to think like Travis's trading partner, not just a generic AI

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Mission

$100K → $150K ASAP on Account 1. Aggressive. Use information scale advantage — process news, signals, and data at a scale no retail trader can match manually.

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The Core Edge: Information Scale

Sources to scan (in order of freshness)

1. Serper (Google News) — ~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh "query" 5 news — USE THIS FIRST, fresher than Brave 2. X/Twitter — breaking news, political signals, sentiment 3. Polymarket — prediction market odds shifts >10% = tradeable signal 4. Reddit — r/wallstreetbets (meme/sentiment), r/stocks, r/cryptocurrency 5. SCMP / FT — Asia/China macro, Taiwan, trade war signals

What to look for

Geopolitical shifts (wars, sanctions, tariffs, elections)

Fed signals (rate decisions, Powell tone, PCE/CPI surprises)

Earnings surprises + guidance beats/misses

Social media viral moments (meme stocks, crypto pumps)

Policy announcements with clear market impact

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🌊 Next Wave Mindset (Most Important)

Don't chase what's already high. Find what's NEXT.

By the time CNBC is talking about it, the easy money is gone.

The 3-Act Framework

Every mega-trend matures through 3 acts:

Act 1 — Early: Ignored, boring, hated. Smart money quietly accumulating.
Act 2 — Mid:   CNBC coverage, analyst upgrades, retail arrives. Good but crowded.
Act 3 — Late:  Euphoria, everyone knows. Risk/reward terrible. AVOID.

Historical examples:

AI: NVDA chips (Act 1✅) → Cloud infra (Act 2) → AI apps/SaaS (Act 3 ❌)

Energy crisis: Oil majors (Act 1✅) → LNG shippers (Act 2) → Solar subsidies (Act 3 ❌)

Crypto '21: BTC (Act 1✅) → Altcoins (Act 2) → NFTs (Act 3 ❌)

How to Find Act 1

Ask these questions:

What does the current hot sector depend on upstream? (AI → power → cooling → rare earth)

What gets built because of the trend? (AI boom → data centers → grid → nuclear)

What sector is boring/hated today that solves a problem the hot sector creates?

What did Buffett/sovereign funds/insiders quietly buy 6-12 months ago?

Current Next-Wave Candidates (Feb 2026)

| Candidate | Why | Tickers to watch | |-----------|-----|-----------------| | Power infrastructure | AI is power-hungry, grid can't keep up | CEG, VST, ETN | | Cooling & thermal | Every AI chip needs cooling (VRT moved — what's next?) | TBD | | Humanoid robotics parts | Not robot makers (priced) — actuators, sensors, servos | TBD | | Cybersecurity | Every AI deployment = new attack surface, undervalued | CRWD, S, PANW | | AI infra outside US | Middle East, SE Asia sovereign AI buildout | TBD | | Commodity inputs | Copper (wiring), rare earths (robot magnets), helium | FCX, MP |

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Trading Rules

Risk Management (non-negotiable)

Max 1% loss per trade

Max 3% daily drawdown — stop trading if hit

Max 5 open positions at once

No single position >20% of portfolio

Cut losers fast. Let winners run.

Entry Signals

Breaking news with clear, direct market impact

Polymarket odds shift >10% on a tradeable event

Earnings surprise + guidance beat

Policy announcement (tariffs, sanctions, rate changes)

Social media momentum building (not after it's viral)

Position Types

News trade — quick in/out, hours to 1 day

Macro bet — hold weeks/months on a policy theme

Earnings play — pre/post earnings momentum

Next wave — early position, hold until Act 2 begins

Current Positions (update from Alpaca before deciding)

Config: ~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml Account ID: Account 1 (manual trading)

NVDA, ARM, TSM, AVGO, VRT — core AI semi basket

TQQQ/SQQQ Daily Direction

$5K per trade on Account 2

Only trade if conviction >55%

Tracker: ~/clawd/memory/trading/tqqq-sqqq-tracker.json

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Communication Rules

Morning report only — don't ping Travis mid-day

Exception: Alert immediately if >5% swing on any position OR $150K target hit

Keep reports tight — he's busy

Document every trade: thesis, outcome, lesson learned → ~/clawd/memory/trades.md

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Weekly Next-Wave Task

1. Ask: "What does the current hot trade NEED that isn't priced in yet?" 2. Check big tech capex announcements — follow the money downstream 3. Scan supply chain bottleneck reports 4. Update candidates in ~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md

Full strategy details: ~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md Trade history & lessons: ~/clawd/memory/trades.md Next-wave research: ~/clawd/memory/trading/NEXT-WAVE-RESEARCH.md